Asymmetric Conflicts Drive Military Demand for Non-Lethal Weapons

NLW provide a less-lethal alternative between the options of "Shout and Shoot"

The asymmetric armed conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the turmoil in the Arab world, violent events such as the August 2011 U.K. street riots, and the July 2014 Israeli-Hamas conflict continue and drive governments, police and defense establishment decision-makers to seek cost-effective NLW means. This increased demand will yield a $5.6B cumulative 2014-2020 Military Non-Lethal Weapons Market.

The U.S. Navy, for example, is kick-starting a new industry development for NLW for uses such as vehicles and boats, moving or dispersing crowds, and discouraging attackers or aggressive human behavior. The Office of Naval Research (ONR) covers 14 areas including:

  1. Non-lethal advanced materials
  2. High-power microwave technologies for counter-material missions
  3. Compact active-denial technologies
  4. Clear-a-space technologies
  5. Human electro-muscular incapacitation technologies
  6. Non-lethal directed-energy and non-directed energy-based technologies for vehicle or vessel stopping and other counter-material targets
  7. Non-lethal laser-induced plasma effects at ranges further than 100 meters
  8. Compact non-lethal non-pyrotechnic flash-bang technologies
  9. Compact advanced multi-bang flash-bang technologies
  10. Advanced non-lethal technologies that move, suppress, deny, or disable individuals and crowds through combined effects
  11. Compact hail-and-warn technologies through two-way communications with ranges as far as 1,500 meters
  12. Compact, low-cost non-lethal push-back and repel technologies
  13. Human effects and non-lethal weapon effectiveness studies, risk assessments, and evaluations
  14. Other next-generation non-lethal technologies

The Active Denial System, a Raytheon-built experimental weapon that uses millimeter waves

Troops test-fire optical distractors on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln. Note how the beams spread rapidly, reducing the nominal ocular hazard distance and spreading the beam over a wider area on targets
Source: U.S. Navy

Another example is the multi-modal Rafael Samson Non-Lethal Weapon Station intended for all-round response for low intensity conflict violence. The vehicle allows its operators to choose from an array of integrated NLW modalities (e.g., Sound Blaster Acoustic Device, Tear/Smoke Grenade launcher, Xenon Based Dazzler, Impulse Grenade Launcher, 40mm Grenade Launcher) that can be adapted to the situation on the ground.

The Samson NL enables responders to effectively address violent situations from inside the host vehicle. Advanced, high-precision electro-optic sensors provide them with accurate, real-time situational awareness, while in-vehicle operation lets them exercise full control of the non-lethal provisions. In this way, the crew can respond accurately, with minimum civilian casualties and without incurring their own injury.

Source: Rafael Ltd

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$23B 2022 Natural Disasters Preparation & Response Equipment Market

Annual number of catastrophic floods and storms grew from 1970 to 2010 by more than 450%
According to recent reports (e.g., the UN, OECD, OFDA/CRED) the annual number of climate-related catastrophic hazards grew by more than 450% since 1970. Since 2010, more than 700 natural disasters have been registered worldwide, affecting more than 450 million people.

Source: The OFDA/CRED International Disasters Database (EM-DAT)
Approximately 75% of the world’s population and half of the least developed countries are exposed to extreme events such as earthquakes, flooding and cyclones. $100 to $500 billion are lost every year due to hurricanes, earthquakes and floods. Bigger storms and floods, and growing urbanization will only make these numbers climb higher. While the scientific community debates on how much of this dramatic growth should be attributed to global warming, everyone is in agreement that the amount of funding required to respond to the consequences of major floods and storms is on the rise.

 

While natural disasters cannot be prevented, much can be done with technology to reduce the loss of life and lessen their financial impact. The increased sophistication of Natural Disasters forecasting, Preparation, Response & Relief capabilities promote “high-end”/”high value-added” equipment and systems solutions. As such, HSRC forecasts increased market requirements for integrated Natural Disasters Preparation, Response & Relief solutions interoperability/interconnectivity (i.e., favoring prime suppliers expertise in systems integration), and post disaster recovery (e.g., Decontamination of HAZMAT)

Market opportunities will also emerge from high growth sectors including data fusion systems, flood recovery equipment and earthquake search and rescue equipment.

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Premium Screening vs. Fear of Radiation – the Whole Body Scanners Technology Dilemma

A performance knockout goes back to the jury because of public misconception of radiation
Security decision makers are faced with an almost unfair dilemma in choosing Whole Body Scanners enabling technology. On the one hand, MMWave technology has limited resolution and above all cannot detect intra-cavity smuggling (e.g., passengers hiding plastic bags containing drugs or explosives in their body cavities, terrorists’ plans to use surgeries to implant explosives inside the body of would-be suicide aviation terrorists). On the other hand, Backscatter X-Ray technology provides dramatically-superior screening performance:

  1. It detects explosives and arms within and outside the human body
  2. It provides (some) material identification capabilities (e.g., TNT vs. a bar of chocolate)
  3. It can, due to its high spatial resolution, identify a bomb’s wires

In short, it would be very difficult for terrorists to beat this technology at a radiation dose of a two minutes’ flight at 30.000 feet.

The dilemma arises from the public’s fear of radiation – a term that is automatically connected with the word Cancer. Following 40 years of medical research, no study has indicated any elevation of cancer prevalence in commercial air crews who fly hundreds of hours per year for over 20 years over a non-flying population.
MMWave AIT
Advantages
  • Does not require bulky portals
  • Can provide the dielectric constraint of the screened concealed object being screened (if it is dielectric)
  • No privacy issues
  • No ionizing radiation
Disadvantages
  • Limited spatial resolution of ~1cm, but enough to detect an object (>2 cm) mounted outside the body
  • Can’t detect intra-body concealed explosives and arms
  • Limited throughput
Safety

Millimeter wave technology emits ‎thousands of times less energy than a cell ‎phone transmission.
Source: TSA

Backscatter X-Ray
Advantages
  • High spatial and material ID resolution
  • Maximum detection of potential threats
  • Detects metallic and non-metallic weapons
  • IEDS detection
  • Detects explosives and drugs
  • Demonstrated effectiveness in a prison environment
  • Can be used as primary or secondary screening
  • Hard to defeat
  • Some material ID reduces secondary screening
  • 2nd generation systems have no privacy issues
  • Detects intra-body concealed explosives and arms
Disadvantages
  • Requires ionizing radiation
  • Public fear of radiation
  • Limited throughput
Safety

One backscatter technology scan produces the same exposure as two minutes of flying on an airplane.
Source: TSA

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Purchasing Price of Whole Body Scanners Represents <5% of Their Total Lifetime Cost

With the expected acquisition completion of Whole Body Scanners with Advanced Imaging Technology (AIT), the TSA would have installed 878 units across 140 U.S. airports. According to the U.S. Congress GAO, the total lifetime cost for these machines will be $3.5B. This means that the actual purchasing ex-factory unit price of approximately $170K represents less than 5% of the costs with the bulk 95% comprising of systems installation costs, TSA 24/7 screeners labor costs, training, upgrades and maintenance costs.
The recent planned procurement announcement of 878 machines actually goes back to the original pre-2009 installation plan. In response to the Dec. 29th, 2009 bombing attempt, the TSA proposed the procurement of 1,800 additional AIT systems, then reduced to 1250, and finally went back to the originally planned 878.

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In 2013, China’s Safe City Projects Grabbed 58% Share of the Global Safe City Market

Out of the 2013 $17.4B global safe cities’ market, China’s $10.2B included $3.6B for procurement from foreign-based companies such as IBM, Cisco and Siemens.
Chinese Safe City Billboard. (Source: China Ministry of Interior)
According to “China Safe City Technologies & Markets – 2013-2022” and the “Global Homeland Security & Public Safety Market – 2014-2022” reports, China’s safe city market (including planning, consulting services, systems procurement, integration & installation costs, maintenance and upgrades) will accumulate to $138B between 2013 & 2022 and peak in 2021. $46B of this amount will go to foreign-based companies.  The main driver of this market is China’s 650 (or “Plan 3111”) safe cities program. These safe cities municipal-level deployments of sensors and systems are intended to enhance the mitigation of crime, terror and prepare for either manmade or natural disasters. In these projects, deployments of 100,000-plus surveillance cameras per city are not uncommon, dwarfing even the largest European or U.S. smart & safe cities projects.  China’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for advanced video surveillance technologies led to 13M cameras already installed, making China the world’s largest consumer of video surveillance equipment.

Read more on China Safe Cities Technologies and Markets business opportunities, market figures and forecasts

China, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are Fastest Growing Homeland Security Markets

Middle Eastern countries are responding to the ongoing turmoil with rapid spending on Homeland Security & Internal Security technologies. According to HSRC’s latest report Global Homeland Security & Public Safety Market – 2015-2022, while in absolute terms spending of countries such as U.A.E., Kuwait and Saudi Arabia doesn’t come close to the market leaders China and the U.S. (which are forecasted to maintain a 36% share of the 2013-2022 market), in relative terms of GDP share, the Middle Eastern countries spend two to four times as much as the international superpowers. In addition, the urgency resulting from this turmoil makes these regions some of the fastest-growing Homeland Security & Public Safety markets in the World.

Homeland Security & Public Safety Market Size Considering 10 Year CAGR and % of GDP

In the chart above we take a closer look at the Homeland Security & Public Safety market for 10 selected countries. For each of the countries, the chart illustrates the relationship of the forecasted 2013-2022 HLS & Public Safety market CAGR with the market size as percent of GDP. The size of the bubble indicates the overall market size.

Read more on Global Homeland Security & Public Safety business opportunities, market figures and forecasts

Multi-Billion Dollar Investments for China’s Mass Transportation’s Security Systems

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China Video Surveillance

By 2020, China is expected to have 6,100 km of urban rail lines and 120,000 km of rail network

The Chinese Mass Transportation market is a multibillion dollar market growing at a two digit CAGR. The market is characterized by a special thirst for state-of-the-art technologies (e.g., subway security sensor network ICT, C-3 software products) and high investments in workforce and visitor screening and surveillance.

To date, 36 cities in China have proposals to construct intercity urban rails, of which 28 cities have won official approval. These include new 87 lines exceeding 2,500 kilometers in total by 2015 with a total investment of $ 160 Billion.

It gives a competitive edge to foreign-based companies who can supply first tier high tech equipment and services. As such, foreign companies occupy a major market share in the Chinese transportation market and will continue to do so over the next decade so long as they maintain a technological edge.

Read more on China’s Mass Transportation business opportunities, market figures and forecasts

The World’s Largest National Smart Video Surveillance Market is…

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China Video Surveillance, source (IBM)

China! – By the end of 2010, approximately 10 million cameras were installed in China as part of a nationwide buildup of an internal security infrastructure

City-wide deployments of 100,000-plus cameras in China are not uncommon, dwarfing even the largest European or U.S.A. “enterprise” projects. Chinese “Safe Cities” are rushing to construct their surveillance systems by fusing Internet, video surveillance cameras, cellphone, GPS location data, face recognition biometric databases and command & control centers. This growth in turn has resulted in vastly increased demand for technically advanced surveillance systems, thereby creating huge growth opportunities for foreign intelligent video surveillance systems manufacturers, vendors and distributors.

Read more on China’s Homeland Security & Public Safety Market

Read more on China’s Safe City Market

2 Out of 3 New Airports in the World Will Be Built in China

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U.S. vs China Air Travel Growth Forecast 2011-2031

By 2031 China’s Air Passengers Traffic will be More Than 150% of the U.S. 2011 Traffic

With a population of 1.25 billion and an area of 3.7 million square miles (about the area of the U.S.A.), China is well suited for extensive use of air transportation. According to a forecast by Boeing, the 2012-2020 China air travel will grow 40% faster than global air travel. The tremendous air travel growth leads to immediate and lucrative business opportunities for foreign-based suppliers of airport security equipment for:

  • Airport perimeter security
  • Air cargo screening
  • Passenger screening
  • Checked luggage screening
  • Cabin baggage screening
  • Passenger biometric ID
  • C-3 I

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Global Video Analytics Market – This Region’s Market Share Will Nearly Triple

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Global Defense Video Analytics Market Share by Region [%] – 2011, 2020

Although the Defense, ISR & other security related video analytics market is currently dominated by the U.S., in the coming years the Asia-Pacific region is expected to sustain the fastest regional growth, biting into the U.S. market share. This growth is driven by India’s counter-terror investment and China’s internal security concerns. Within this region, some of the most lucrative business opportunities can be found in the critical infrastructure security intelligent video surveillance market sustaining double digit growth during the forecast period

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5 Chinese Cities and Provinces Spending Billions on Safe Cities Projects

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Chinese Cities and Provinces Spending Billions on Safe Cities Projects

650 Chinese cities are rushing to construct their safe city platforms by fusing Internet, video surveillance cameras, cell phones, GPS location data and biometric technologies into central public safety meta-systems. A few examples include:

  • Sichuan Province is spending $4.2 billion on its safe city project including a network of 500,000 surveillance cameras.
  • Guangdong Province “Safe City Corridor” project will be based on a 1,000,000 camera surveillance systems at an estimated cost of over $6 Billion.
  • Beijing municipal government is seeking to place cameras in all entertainment venues, adding 400,000 surveillance cameras to the bundle of 300,000 cameras that were installed for the 2008 Olympics.
  • Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, where almost 200 people died in the July 2009 riots, installed 40,000 surveillance cameras as part of an ongoing safe city project.
  • The Safe City project of Guangzhou, one of the main export and manufacturing hubs, will include 270,000 surveillance cameras

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Multi Trillion Dollar Chinese Urbanization Program to Lead to a Multi-Billion Dollar Safe City Market

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China Urbanization Program

China is pushing ahead with its massive multi-trillion dollar plan to transfer 250 million (roughly the total urban population of the U.S.) rural residents into newly constructed cities.  The goal of the plan is to decisively solve the rural-urban income gap by creating a prospering urban middle class of over 700 million people.  This urbanization will supply low cost workforce and create a growing consumer demand for goods and services.  Thus, this program is viewed as the key to maintaining the nation’s continued economic development. This massive relocation is generating harsh opposition requiring the Chinese government to go to extreme ends to maintain control of the process.  The government is committed to spending 10s of billions on high-end technologies to maintain the public safety and security of their cities.

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