Intelligence – The Weapon Europe Really Needs

Terrorist attacks in Europe are not a surprising event anymore. Every few weeks, another country in Europe finds itself under attack by terror. Germany, France, the UK, and Belgium are now all part of the global map of terror incidents. A stronger army and a higher defense budget cannot deal with “lone wolf” attacks or even the small core of closed groups found with in refugee compounds or suburbs.

The field in which Europe is really lacking power is Intelligence. Therefore, this is one of the areas it must invest most in, in order to deal with the problem before it becomes unmanageable. These are the main issues
Europe will need to address in the coming years, and which should trigger higher investment in Intelligence:

  1. Monitoring the borders and roads – The terrorist involved in the recent Berlin truck attack was finally apprehended in Italy. This implies that he managed to cross at least two borders in order to reach the country, where he was caught entirely by chance. Growing threats such as this incident are expected to push Europe to enhance its surveillance capabilities in all sectors of Intelligence – especially in SIGINT, HUMINT, and OSINT. One of the fastest-growing areas will be the increased use of Big Data Analytics.
  2. Dealing with privacy issues – In many European countries, privacy is a very important issue and citizens consider “intelligence” a frightening word. This cultural issue can affect the number of surveillance cameras used, the budget dedicated to communication surveillance, the amount of information shared among organizations, and more. As in many cases in other countries in the world, internal threats may change one’s perspective on “privacy,” giving way to “security” as the top priority. This cultural shift is projected to increase European budgets on surveillance.
  3. Sharing data and intel with more countries – Most of the terrorist attacks in Europe were committed by people who migrated to those places rather than having lived there their entire life. Therefore, their lives and personal “data” are scattered all over the world: Tunisia, Pakistan, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, as well as several countries around Europe. As a result, the task of collecting intelligence about them has become extremely difficult for one single organization to handle. For instance, learning about the family connections of a person of interest, discovering their credit history, travel history, email & phone history, as well as other types of information can be challenging for a Belgian intelligence analyst, who can only access data collected by Belgium or other countries in Europe. This issue is expected to yield increased investment to enhance data gathering and sharing among countries and organizations.

 Another significant issue linked to the globalization of terrorism is that organizations must deal with a plethora of sources in various languages: travel documents in Swedish, websites in Arabic, communication in Pashtu, human sources in French, social media in spoken Arabic of Tunisian dialect, etc. This problem is expected to emphasize the role of data analysis systems, with authorities no longer relying only on texts and the collaboration among organizations.

Most of the terrorists are not “ghosts” and intelligence organizations usually manage to find a lot of information about them once an attack has already occurred – the key challenge is to reach this information before the attack takes place. This implies new investments to increase the scope of sources and to better exploit existing ones. The market for Intelligence (in all its forms) along with Big Data for security purposes will grow substantially in Europe in the coming years. According to a recent report by HSRC, the market for Big Data in security segments in Europe will grow by over 20% per year. The global market will reach $11B by 2022, growing at a CAGR of 17.5%.

For more information about the report, click on the link below:

http://homelandsecurityresearch.com/2016/11/big-data-data-analytics-market-homeland-security-public-safety-global-market-2017-2022/

Premium Screening vs. Fear of Radiation – the Whole Body Scanners Technology Dilemma

A performance knockout goes back to the jury because of public misconception of radiation
Security decision makers are faced with an almost unfair dilemma in choosing Whole Body Scanners enabling technology. On the one hand, MMWave technology has limited resolution and above all cannot detect intra-cavity smuggling (e.g., passengers hiding plastic bags containing drugs or explosives in their body cavities, terrorists’ plans to use surgeries to implant explosives inside the body of would-be suicide aviation terrorists). On the other hand, Backscatter X-Ray technology provides dramatically-superior screening performance:

  1. It detects explosives and arms within and outside the human body
  2. It provides (some) material identification capabilities (e.g., TNT vs. a bar of chocolate)
  3. It can, due to its high spatial resolution, identify a bomb’s wires

In short, it would be very difficult for terrorists to beat this technology at a radiation dose of a two minutes’ flight at 30.000 feet.

The dilemma arises from the public’s fear of radiation – a term that is automatically connected with the word Cancer. Following 40 years of medical research, no study has indicated any elevation of cancer prevalence in commercial air crews who fly hundreds of hours per year for over 20 years over a non-flying population.
MMWave AIT
Advantages
  • Does not require bulky portals
  • Can provide the dielectric constraint of the screened concealed object being screened (if it is dielectric)
  • No privacy issues
  • No ionizing radiation
Disadvantages
  • Limited spatial resolution of ~1cm, but enough to detect an object (>2 cm) mounted outside the body
  • Can’t detect intra-body concealed explosives and arms
  • Limited throughput
Safety

Millimeter wave technology emits ‎thousands of times less energy than a cell ‎phone transmission.
Source: TSA

Backscatter X-Ray
Advantages
  • High spatial and material ID resolution
  • Maximum detection of potential threats
  • Detects metallic and non-metallic weapons
  • IEDS detection
  • Detects explosives and drugs
  • Demonstrated effectiveness in a prison environment
  • Can be used as primary or secondary screening
  • Hard to defeat
  • Some material ID reduces secondary screening
  • 2nd generation systems have no privacy issues
  • Detects intra-body concealed explosives and arms
Disadvantages
  • Requires ionizing radiation
  • Public fear of radiation
  • Limited throughput
Safety

One backscatter technology scan produces the same exposure as two minutes of flying on an airplane.
Source: TSA

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Purchasing Price of Whole Body Scanners Represents <5% of Their Total Lifetime Cost

With the expected acquisition completion of Whole Body Scanners with Advanced Imaging Technology (AIT), the TSA would have installed 878 units across 140 U.S. airports. According to the U.S. Congress GAO, the total lifetime cost for these machines will be $3.5B. This means that the actual purchasing ex-factory unit price of approximately $170K represents less than 5% of the costs with the bulk 95% comprising of systems installation costs, TSA 24/7 screeners labor costs, training, upgrades and maintenance costs.
The recent planned procurement announcement of 878 machines actually goes back to the original pre-2009 installation plan. In response to the Dec. 29th, 2009 bombing attempt, the TSA proposed the procurement of 1,800 additional AIT systems, then reduced to 1250, and finally went back to the originally planned 878.

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Multi-Modal Data Fusing is the Future of Airport Security

The combination of terror threat, the shortcomings of existing technologies and governments’ willingness to spend, provide for a new fast growing Airport Security market in the coming decade

According to HSRC’s latest report Global Homeland Security & Public Safety Market – 2014-2022, nearly 25% of current airport operating costs are related to the costs of purchasing and running security technologies (compared with only 8% pre-9/11).  Despite these costly expenditures, the performance of these systems leaves much to be desired. Unacceptably high false alarm rates, overlooked threats, poor passenger experience, as well as the high cost of personnel will continue to drive the market for high-end technological solutions.

There is no “silver bullet” security protocol or technology that can keep up with the increasing sophistication of the 21st century terrorists.  Thus, HSRC forecasts that in the future, multi-threat, interconnected detection modalities that are fused with security and other databases will dominate the market.  

Airport Security Multi-Modal Fused Systems (source: DHS)

Some of the detection signatures include:

    • Passenger background info. (e.g., security and other databases, driver license database, IRS)
    • X-ray systems
    • Explosives trace detectors
    • Checked luggage EDS
    • Metal detection portals
    • AIT
    • Airport perimeter security fences
    • Airport worker/visitor biometric ID
    • Smart video surveillance
    • Cell phone airport surveillance
    • Black lists
    • Face recognition standoff biometrics, and more

Read more on Global Homeland Security & Public Safety business opportunities, market figures and forecasts

China, UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are Fastest Growing Homeland Security Markets

Middle Eastern countries are responding to the ongoing turmoil with rapid spending on Homeland Security & Internal Security technologies. According to HSRC’s latest report Global Homeland Security & Public Safety Market – 2015-2022, while in absolute terms spending of countries such as U.A.E., Kuwait and Saudi Arabia doesn’t come close to the market leaders China and the U.S. (which are forecasted to maintain a 36% share of the 2013-2022 market), in relative terms of GDP share, the Middle Eastern countries spend two to four times as much as the international superpowers. In addition, the urgency resulting from this turmoil makes these regions some of the fastest-growing Homeland Security & Public Safety markets in the World.

Homeland Security & Public Safety Market Size Considering 10 Year CAGR and % of GDP

In the chart above we take a closer look at the Homeland Security & Public Safety market for 10 selected countries. For each of the countries, the chart illustrates the relationship of the forecasted 2013-2022 HLS & Public Safety market CAGR with the market size as percent of GDP. The size of the bubble indicates the overall market size.

Read more on Global Homeland Security & Public Safety business opportunities, market figures and forecasts

2 Out of 3 New Airports in the World Will Be Built in China

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U.S. vs China Air Travel Growth Forecast 2011-2031

By 2031 China’s Air Passengers Traffic will be More Than 150% of the U.S. 2011 Traffic

With a population of 1.25 billion and an area of 3.7 million square miles (about the area of the U.S.A.), China is well suited for extensive use of air transportation. According to a forecast by Boeing, the 2012-2020 China air travel will grow 40% faster than global air travel. The tremendous air travel growth leads to immediate and lucrative business opportunities for foreign-based suppliers of airport security equipment for:

  • Airport perimeter security
  • Air cargo screening
  • Passenger screening
  • Checked luggage screening
  • Cabin baggage screening
  • Passenger biometric ID
  • C-3 I

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Foreign Based Companies to Capture $30 Billion of 2014-2020 China Safe City Market

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Foreign companies in China

A significant number of products used in the Safe Cities projects are supplied by foreign based companies, (e.g., Cisco, IBM, Honeywell, Siemens, Toshiba, AGT). Specifically, foreign companies are the main suppliers of the high-end products and systems including state-of the-art IT, PSIM, PSAP, SaaS, EMNS, MSS and smart video cameras.

Given the $97 billion cumulative 2014-2020 China Safe City market, the foreign-based companies’ 31% market share translates to $30 billion in business opportunities over the next 7 years.

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Global Video Analytics Market to Triple Over the Next Decade

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Global Video Analytics

IVS, ISR and Video Analytics Process Trillions of Video Surveillance-Hours Footage Annually

By 2012, over 200 million video surveillance cameras deployed worldwide captured 1.6 trillion video-hours. Growing at a CAGR of 9-11%, captured video surveillance footage is forecasted to reach approximately 3.3 trillion video-hours by 2020. A hypothetical analysis assuming that 20% of the most critical video streams should have been reviewed by human operators, results in a (hypothetical) need to employ (in 2012) a workforce of over 110 million operators (working 8 hours daily, 300 days a year).

Over 50 years of CCTV security systems underwent a decade of technological revolution. This revolution is based on advancements in image processing algorithms, processors and smart end cameras economy of scale.

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The 93% of U.S. HLS, HLD & Public Safety Market that’s not Aviation Security

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U.S. Homeland Security & Public Safety 2016 Market Shares [%] by Application

While the Aviation Security industry in the U.S. remains a multi-billion dollar market, it constitutes only a small fraction of actual spending by federal state and local governments. Although every new aviation event can create a surge in this market, by 2016 three other industry segments will share nearly 75% of the market: critical infrastructure security, first responders market and CBRN terror and hazmat & disease outbreak mitigation.

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